Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - St. Louis Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actually high sincwe double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economyg grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’w Marty Regalia. He predicted that the current economic downturmn will end around September but that the unemploymenr rate will remain high through the firsyt half ofnext year. Investment won’ snap back as quickly as it usuall does aftera recession, Regalia Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem because of the federak government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amount of dollars pumpeed into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwoundf once the economy begins to recover, highe r interest rates could choke off improvement in the housingg market and business investment, he said.
“The economyy has got to be running on its own by the middlr ofnext year,” Regaliaz said. Almost every majoe inflationary periodin U.S. history was precedec by heavy debt levels, he The chances of a double-dil recession will be lowet if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of the Federal Regalia said. If President Obama appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larry Summers, to chaid the Fed, that would signak the monetary spigot would remain open for a longer time, he A coalescing of the Fed and the Obam administration is “not something the marketas want to see,” Regalia said. Obama has declined to say whethee he willreappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in February.
more than half of small business owners expect the recession to last at leas anothertwo years, according to a survey of Intuitt Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilities but bearisjh on the factors they can’t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Even in the gloomiesr economy, there are opportunities to seize.” A separate survey of smal l business owners by found that 57 percent though the economy wasgetting worse, while 26 percent thought the economu was improving.
More than half plannedf to decrease spending on business development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Web